Paper bet blotter

Every simulated bet the model places, as it happens · updated 2026-07-19T23:22:04Z · ledger V8 (since 2026-07-19, post-final: the prop-gap breaker removed by owner call and the CURRENT config replayed over full history — the account's realized record contradicted the maker-side evidence the rail was built on; as-traded history stays frozen in the archives — V3 · V4 · V5 · V6 · V7) · bets.csv · predictions

Full distribution
$+148.67
64 bets · $441.29 spent · 34W/30L
HT xG
$+211.43
57 bets · $906.08 spent · 44W/13L
Live xG
$+249.05
66 bets · $972.97 spent · 40W/26L
Wings
$+31.11
24 bets · $287.68 spent · 17W/7L
#timematchmarketstrategyside priceqtyspendminoutcome P&LCLVmodel
1Jul 09 12:07 PTFRA–MAROver 3.5WingsNO0.741$0.740$+0.25-2.5cv1.6|tracked
2Jul 09 12:07 PTFRA–MAROver 4.5WingsNO0.881$0.880$+0.11-1.5cv1.6|tracked
3Jul 09 12:07 PTFRA–MARFrance -1.5WingsNO0.661$0.661$-0.68-1.5cv1.6|tracked
4Jul 09 12:07 PTFRA–MARMorocco -1.5WingsYES0.051$0.050$-0.05-0.5cv1.6|tracked
5Jul 09 12:07 PTFRA–MARFrance winFull distributionNO0.391$0.391$-0.41-0.5cv1.6|tracked
6Jul 09 12:07 PTFRA–MARDrawFull distributionYES0.251$0.250$-0.26-0.5cv1.6|tracked
7Jul 09 12:07 PTFRA–MARMorocco winFull distributionYES0.151$0.150$-0.16-0.5cv1.6|tracked
8Jul 09 12:07 PTFRA–MAROver 0.5Full distributionNO0.081$0.081$-0.09-0.5cv1.6|tracked
9Jul 09 12:07 PTFRA–MAROver 1.5Full distributionNO0.271$0.271$-0.28-3.5cv1.6|tracked
10Jul 09 12:07 PTFRA–MAROver 2.5Full distributionNO0.531$0.530$+0.45-3.5cv1.6|tracked
11Jul 09 12:07 PTFRA–MAROver 3.5Full distributionNO0.741$0.740$+0.25-2.5cv1.6|tracked
12Jul 09 12:07 PTFRA–MAROver 4.5Full distributionNO0.881$0.880$+0.11-1.5cv1.6|tracked
13Jul 09 12:07 PTFRA–MARBoth teams to scoreFull distributionNO0.501$0.500$+0.48-1.5cv1.6|tracked
14Jul 09 12:07 PTFRA–MARFrance -1.5Full distributionNO0.661$0.661$-0.68-1.5cv1.6|tracked
15Jul 09 12:07 PTFRA–MARMorocco -1.5Full distributionYES0.051$0.050$-0.05-0.5cv1.6|tracked
16Jul 09 13:30 PTFRA–MARFrance winLive xGYES0.641$0.6429'1$+0.34v1.6+B2P-k30@25+|tracked
17Jul 09 13:30 PTFRA–MARDrawLive xGNO0.751$0.7529'0$+0.24v1.6+B2P-k30@25+|tracked
18Jul 09 13:30 PTFRA–MARMorocco winLive xGNO0.901$0.9029'0$+0.09v1.6+B2P-k30@25+|tracked
19Jul 09 13:30 PTFRA–MARFrance -1.5Live xGYES0.371$0.3729'1$+0.61v1.6+B2P-k30@25+|tracked
20Jul 09 13:33 PTFRA–MARBoth teams to scoreLive xGNO0.621$0.6232'0$+0.36v1.6+B2P-k30@25+|tracked
21Jul 09 13:37 PTFRA–MAROver 2.5Live xGYES0.361$0.3636'0$-0.38v1.6+B2P-k30@25+|tracked
22Jul 09 13:37 PTFRA–MAROver 3.5Live xGYES0.161$0.1636'0$-0.17v1.6+B2P-k30@25+|tracked
23Jul 09 13:37 PTFRA–MAROver 4.5Live xGYES0.061$0.0636'0$-0.06v1.6+B2P-k30@25+|tracked
24Jul 09 13:47 PTFRA–MAROver 1.5Live xGNO0.441$0.4446'1$-0.46v1.6+B2P-k30@25+|tracked
25Jul 09 13:49 PTFRA–MAROver 0.5Live xGNO0.161$0.1648'1$-0.17v1.6+B2P-k30@25+|tracked
26Jul 09 13:51 PTFRA–MARFrance winHT xGYES0.601$0.6045'1$+0.38v1.6+B2P-k30@HT|tracked
27Jul 09 13:51 PTFRA–MARMorocco winHT xGNO0.881$0.8845'0$+0.11v1.6+B2P-k30@HT|tracked
28Jul 09 13:51 PTFRA–MAROver 0.5HT xGNO0.171$0.1745'1$-0.18v1.6+B2P-k30@HT|tracked
29Jul 09 13:51 PTFRA–MAROver 1.5HT xGNO0.471$0.4745'1$-0.49v1.6+B2P-k30@HT|tracked
30Jul 09 13:51 PTFRA–MARBoth teams to scoreHT xGNO0.721$0.7245'0$+0.27v1.6+B2P-k30@HT|tracked
31Jul 09 13:51 PTFRA–MARFrance -1.5HT xGYES0.281$0.2845'1$+0.71v1.6+B2P-k30@HT|tracked
32Jul 09 14:03 PTFRA–MAROver 2.5HT xGNO0.741$0.7445'0$+0.25v1.6+B2P-k30@HT|tracked
33Jul 09 14:24 PTFRA–MARDrawHT xGNO0.8633$28.3859'0$+4.34v1.6+B2P-k30@HT
34Jul 09 14:47 PTFRA–MAROver 3.5HT xGNO0.914$3.6483'0$+0.34v1.6+B2P-k30@HT
35Jul 10 11:24 PTESP–BELSpain -1.5WingsNO0.668$5.280$+2.59-0.0cv1.6
36Jul 10 11:24 PTESP–BELSpain winFull distributionNO0.4111$4.511$-4.70+0.5cv1.6
37Jul 10 11:24 PTESP–BELBelgium winFull distributionYES0.1711$1.870$-1.98+0.5cv1.6
38Jul 10 11:24 PTESP–BELOver 2.5Full distributionNO0.458$3.601$-3.74-0.5cv1.6
39Jul 10 11:24 PTESP–BELSpain -1.5Full distributionNO0.668$5.280$+2.59-0.0cv1.6
40Jul 10 12:27 PTESP–BELDrawLive xGYES0.2610$2.6026'0$-2.73v1.6+B2P-k30@25+
41Jul 10 12:27 PTESP–BELOver 0.5Live xGNO0.1031$3.1026'1$-3.30v1.6+B2P-k30@25+
42Jul 10 12:27 PTESP–BELOver 1.5Live xGNO0.3032$9.6026'1$-10.07v1.6+B2P-k30@25+
43Jul 10 12:27 PTESP–BELOver 2.5Live xGNO0.5729$16.5326'1$-17.03v1.6+B2P-k30@25+
44Jul 10 12:27 PTESP–BELOver 3.5Live xGNO0.7923$18.1726'0$+4.56v1.6+B2P-k30@25+
45Jul 10 12:29 PTESP–BELSpain -1.5Live xGNO0.716$4.2628'0$+1.65v1.6+B2P-k30@25+
46Jul 10 12:32 PTESP–BELSpain winLive xGYES0.8034$27.2031'1$+6.42v1.6+B2P-k30@25+
47Jul 10 12:32 PTESP–BELBelgium winLive xGNO0.9517$16.1531'0$+0.79v1.6+B2P-k30@25+
48Jul 10 12:32 PTESP–BELOver 4.5Live xGYES0.178$1.3631'0$-1.44v1.6+B2P-k30@25+
49Jul 10 12:41 PTESP–BELBoth teams to scoreLive xGYES0.9632$30.7240'1$+1.19v1.6+B2P-k30@25+
50Jul 10 13:16 PTESP–BELBelgium winHT xGNO0.867$6.0253'0$+0.92v1.6+B2P-k30@HT
51Jul 10 13:30 PTESP–BELSpain winHT xGNO0.549$4.8667'1$-5.02v1.6+B2P-k30@HT
52Jul 10 13:30 PTESP–BELDrawHT xGYES0.425$2.1067'0$-2.19v1.6+B2P-k30@HT
53Jul 10 13:32 PTESP–BELOver 3.5HT xGNO0.737$5.1170'0$+1.79v1.6+B2P-k30@HT
54Jul 10 13:37 PTESP–BELSpain -1.5HT xGNO0.8813$11.4474'0$+1.46v1.6+B2P-k30@HT
55Jul 10 13:41 PTESP–BELOver 2.5HT xGNO0.4818$8.6479'1$-8.95v1.6+B2P-k30@HT
56Jul 11 13:25 PTNOR–ENGOver 3.5WingsNO0.6611$7.260$+3.57+1.5cv1.6+M5
57Jul 11 13:25 PTNOR–ENGOver 4.5WingsNO0.838$6.640$+1.28-0.5cv1.6+M5
58Jul 11 13:25 PTNOR–ENGEngland -1.5WingsNO0.725$3.600$+1.33-0.5cv1.6+M5
59Jul 11 13:25 PTNOR–ENGEngland winFull distributionNO0.489$4.320$+4.52-1.5cv1.6+M5
60Jul 11 13:25 PTNOR–ENGOver 1.5Full distributionNO0.209$1.801$-1.90-0.5cv1.6+M5
61Jul 11 13:25 PTNOR–ENGOver 2.5Full distributionNO0.449$3.960$+4.88-1.5cv1.6+M5
62Jul 11 13:25 PTNOR–ENGOver 3.5Full distributionNO0.6610$6.600$+3.24+1.5cv1.6+M5
63Jul 11 13:25 PTNOR–ENGOver 4.5Full distributionNO0.837$5.810$+1.12-0.5cv1.6+M5
64Jul 11 13:25 PTNOR–ENGBoth teams to scoreFull distributionNO0.3717$6.291$-6.57+0.5cv1.6+M5
65Jul 11 13:25 PTNOR–ENGEngland -1.5Full distributionNO0.725$3.600$+1.33-0.5cv1.6+M5
66Jul 11 13:27 PTNOR–ENGNorway -1.5WingsYES0.089$0.720$-0.77-0.5cv1.6+M5
67Jul 11 13:27 PTNOR–ENGNorway -1.5Full distributionYES0.088$0.640$-0.68-0.5cv1.6+M5
68Jul 11 14:27 PTNOR–ENGDrawLive xGYES0.2926$7.5426'1$+18.09v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
69Jul 11 14:27 PTNOR–ENGOver 0.5Live xGNO0.1094$9.4026'1$-9.99v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
70Jul 11 14:27 PTNOR–ENGOver 1.5Live xGNO0.3266$21.1226'1$-22.13v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
71Jul 11 14:27 PTNOR–ENGOver 2.5Live xGNO0.6019$11.4026'0$+7.28v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
72Jul 11 14:27 PTNOR–ENGBoth teams to scoreLive xGNO0.511$0.5126'1$-0.53v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
73Jul 11 14:27 PTNOR–ENGEngland -1.5Live xGNO0.7526$19.5026'0$+6.16v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
74Jul 11 14:37 PTNOR–ENGNorway winLive xGYES0.3663$22.6835'0$-23.70v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
75Jul 11 14:37 PTNOR–ENGEngland winLive xGNO0.6651$33.6635'0$+16.54v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
76Jul 11 14:37 PTNOR–ENGNorway -1.5Live xGYES0.1523$3.4535'0$-3.66v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
77Jul 11 14:53 PTNOR–ENGDrawHT xGYES0.3222$7.0445'1$+14.62v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
78Jul 11 14:53 PTNOR–ENGEngland winHT xGNO0.5136$18.3645'0$+17.01v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
79Jul 11 14:53 PTNOR–ENGEngland -1.5HT xGNO0.8128$22.6845'0$+5.02v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
80Jul 11 15:16 PTNOR–ENGNorway -1.5HT xGNO0.891$0.8954'0$+0.10v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT|tracked
81Jul 11 15:21 PTNOR–ENGOver 4.5HT xGNO0.8629$24.9458'0$+3.82v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
82Jul 11 15:26 PTNOR–ENGOver 3.5HT xGNO0.6826$17.6863'0$+7.92v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
83Jul 11 15:30 PTNOR–ENGNorway winHT xGNO0.795$3.9568'0$+0.99v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
84Jul 11 17:32 PTARG–SUIOver 3.5WingsNO0.7910$7.900$+1.98-0.5cv1.6+M5
85Jul 11 17:32 PTARG–SUIOver 0.5Full distributionNO0.108$0.801$-0.85-0.5cv1.6+M5
86Jul 11 17:32 PTARG–SUIOver 1.5Full distributionNO0.3110$3.101$-3.25-1.5cv1.6+M5
87Jul 11 17:32 PTARG–SUIOver 2.5Full distributionNO0.598$4.720$+3.14-0.5cv1.6+M5
88Jul 11 17:32 PTARG–SUIOver 3.5Full distributionNO0.799$7.110$+1.79-0.5cv1.6+M5
89Jul 11 17:32 PTARG–SUIBoth teams to scoreFull distributionNO0.5416$8.641$-8.92-0.5cv1.6+M5
90Jul 11 18:28 PTARG–SUIArgentina winLive xGYES0.7823$17.9427'0$-18.22v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
91Jul 11 18:28 PTARG–SUIDrawLive xGNO0.8318$14.9427'1$-15.12v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
92Jul 11 18:28 PTARG–SUISwitzerland winLive xGNO0.959$8.5527'0$+0.42v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
93Jul 11 18:28 PTARG–SUIArgentina -1.5Live xGYES0.459$4.0527'0$-4.21v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
94Jul 11 18:33 PTARG–SUIOver 4.5Live xGNO0.939$8.3732'0$+0.59v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
95Jul 11 18:40 PTARG–SUIOver 3.5Live xGNO0.8130$24.3039'0$+5.38v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
96Jul 11 18:52 PTARG–SUIOver 2.5Live xGNO0.6128$17.0845'0$+10.45v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
97Jul 11 18:52 PTARG–SUIArgentina winHT xGYES0.7931$24.4945'0$-24.85v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
98Jul 11 18:52 PTARG–SUIDrawHT xGNO0.8419$15.9645'1$-16.14v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
99Jul 11 18:52 PTARG–SUISwitzerland winHT xGNO0.9618$17.2845'0$+0.67v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
100Jul 11 18:52 PTARG–SUIOver 2.5HT xGNO0.6142$25.6245'0$+15.68v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
101Jul 11 18:52 PTARG–SUIOver 3.5HT xGNO0.8528$23.8045'0$+3.95v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
102Jul 11 19:20 PTARG–SUIOver 1.5HT xGNO0.331$0.3358'1$-0.35v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
103Jul 11 19:22 PTARG–SUIArgentina -1.5HT xGNO0.6612$7.9261'0$+3.89v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
104Jul 14 11:06 PTFRA–ESPOver 3.5WingsNO0.7111$7.810$+3.03-0.5cv1.6+M5
105Jul 14 11:06 PTFRA–ESPFrance -1.5WingsNO0.8317$14.110$+2.72-0.5cv1.6+M5
106Jul 14 11:06 PTFRA–ESPSpain -1.5WingsYES0.1239$4.681$+34.03-0.5cv1.6+M5
107Jul 14 11:06 PTFRA–ESPFrance winFull distributionNO0.6415$9.600$+5.16-0.5cv1.6+M5
108Jul 14 11:06 PTFRA–ESPSpain winFull distributionYES0.3126$8.061$+17.55-0.5cv1.6+M5
109Jul 14 11:06 PTFRA–ESPOver 1.5Full distributionNO0.248$1.921$-2.02-1.5cv1.6+M5
110Jul 14 11:06 PTFRA–ESPOver 2.5Full distributionNO0.508$4.000$+3.86-0.5cv1.6+M5
111Jul 14 11:06 PTFRA–ESPOver 3.5Full distributionNO0.7110$7.100$+2.76-0.5cv1.6+M5
112Jul 14 11:06 PTFRA–ESPBoth teams to scoreFull distributionNO0.3920$7.800$+11.87-1.5cv1.6+M5
113Jul 14 11:06 PTFRA–ESPFrance -1.5Full distributionNO0.8315$12.450$+2.40-0.5cv1.6+M5
114Jul 14 11:06 PTFRA–ESPSpain -1.5Full distributionYES0.1235$4.201$+30.54-0.5cv1.6+M5
115Jul 14 11:57 PTFRA–ESPDrawFull distributionNO0.675$3.350$+1.57-0.5cv1.6+M5
116Jul 14 12:28 PTFRA–ESPFrance winLive xGNO0.8056$44.8027'0$+10.57v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
117Jul 14 12:28 PTFRA–ESPDrawLive xGNO0.7346$33.5827'0$+11.79v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
118Jul 14 12:28 PTFRA–ESPSpain winLive xGYES0.5268$35.3627'1$+31.45v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
119Jul 14 12:28 PTFRA–ESPOver 3.5Live xGYES0.376$2.2227'0$-2.32v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
120Jul 14 12:28 PTFRA–ESPOver 4.5Live xGYES0.185$0.9027'0$-0.95v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
121Jul 14 12:28 PTFRA–ESPFrance -1.5Live xGNO0.9430$28.2027'0$+1.68v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
122Jul 14 12:28 PTFRA–ESPSpain -1.5Live xGYES0.2391$20.9327'1$+68.94v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
123Jul 14 12:52 PTFRA–ESPFrance winHT xGNO0.8260$49.2045'0$+10.18v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
124Jul 14 12:52 PTFRA–ESPDrawHT xGNO0.7256$40.3245'0$+14.89v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
125Jul 14 12:52 PTFRA–ESPSpain winHT xGYES0.5576$41.8045'1$+32.88v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
126Jul 14 12:52 PTFRA–ESPOver 3.5HT xGNO0.756$4.5045'0$+1.42v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
127Jul 14 12:52 PTFRA–ESPFrance -1.5HT xGNO0.9629$27.8445'0$+1.08v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
128Jul 14 12:52 PTFRA–ESPSpain -1.5HT xGYES0.2389$20.4745'1$+67.43v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
129Jul 14 13:15 PTFRA–ESPOver 2.5Live xGNO0.5410$5.4053'0$+4.43v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
130Jul 14 13:15 PTFRA–ESPOver 2.5HT xGNO0.5413$7.0253'0$+5.75v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
131Jul 14 13:25 PTFRA–ESPOver 4.5HT xGNO0.8810$8.8063'0$+1.13v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
132Jul 14 13:27 PTFRA–ESPBoth teams to scoreLive xGNO0.4745$21.1565'0$+23.07v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
133Jul 15 11:16 PTENG–ARGOver 3.5WingsNO0.7935$27.650$+6.94+0.5cv1.6+M5
134Jul 15 11:16 PTENG–ARGOver 4.5WingsNO0.9124$21.840$+2.02+0.5cv1.6+M5
135Jul 15 11:16 PTENG–ARGEngland -1.5WingsNO0.8537$31.450$+5.22-0.5cv1.6+M5
136Jul 15 11:16 PTENG–ARGArgentina -1.5WingsYES0.1236$4.320$-4.59-0.5cv1.6+M5
137Jul 15 11:16 PTENG–ARGEngland winFull distributionNO0.6443$27.520$+14.79+1.5cv1.6+M5
138Jul 15 11:16 PTENG–ARGArgentina winFull distributionYES0.3237$11.841$+24.60-0.5cv1.6+M5
139Jul 15 11:16 PTENG–ARGOver 0.5Full distributionNO0.1225$3.001$-3.18-0.5cv1.6+M5
140Jul 15 11:16 PTENG–ARGOver 1.5Full distributionNO0.3331$10.231$-10.71-0.5cv1.6+M5
141Jul 15 11:16 PTENG–ARGOver 2.5Full distributionNO0.6128$17.081$-17.55-0.5cv1.6+M5
142Jul 15 11:16 PTENG–ARGOver 3.5Full distributionNO0.7924$18.960$+4.76+0.5cv1.6+M5
143Jul 15 11:16 PTENG–ARGBoth teams to scoreFull distributionNO0.471$0.471$-0.49-0.5cv1.6+M5
144Jul 15 11:16 PTENG–ARGEngland -1.5Full distributionNO0.8535$29.750$+4.94-0.5cv1.6+M5
145Jul 15 11:16 PTENG–ARGArgentina -1.5Full distributionYES0.1234$4.080$-4.33-0.5cv1.6+M5
146Jul 15 12:34 PTENG–ARGDrawLive xGYES0.3847$17.8633'0$-18.64v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
147Jul 15 12:34 PTENG–ARGOver 0.5Live xGNO0.19123$23.3733'1$-24.70v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
148Jul 15 12:34 PTENG–ARGOver 1.5Live xGNO0.4917$8.3333'1$-8.63v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
149Jul 15 12:41 PTENG–ARGArgentina winLive xGNO0.729$6.4841'1$-6.61v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
150Jul 15 12:41 PTENG–ARGArgentina -1.5Live xGNO0.9315$13.9541'0$+0.98v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
151Jul 15 12:43 PTENG–ARGEngland -1.5Live xGNO0.9242$38.6443'0$+3.14v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
152Jul 15 12:51 PTENG–ARGDrawHT xGYES0.4267$28.1445'0$-29.28v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
153Jul 15 12:51 PTENG–ARGOver 0.5HT xGNO0.2878$21.8445'1$-22.94v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
154Jul 15 12:51 PTENG–ARGEngland -1.5HT xGNO0.9250$46.0045'0$+3.74v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
155Jul 15 13:08 PTENG–ARGArgentina winHT xGNO0.7412$8.8847'1$-9.04v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
156Jul 15 13:08 PTENG–ARGArgentina -1.5HT xGNO0.9419$17.8647'0$+1.06v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
157Jul 15 13:17 PTENG–ARGEngland winLive xGYES0.6642$27.7256'0$-28.38v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
158Jul 15 13:17 PTENG–ARGEngland winHT xGYES0.6646$30.3656'0$-31.08v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
159Jul 15 13:46 PTENG–ARGOver 2.5Live xGNO0.711$0.7185'1$-0.72v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+|tracked
160Jul 15 13:46 PTENG–ARGOver 3.5Live xGNO0.961$0.9685'0$+0.04v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+|tracked
161Jul 15 13:46 PTENG–ARGOver 2.5HT xGNO0.711$0.7185'1$-0.72v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT|tracked
162Jul 15 13:46 PTENG–ARGOver 3.5HT xGNO0.961$0.9685'0$+0.04v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT|tracked
163Jul 18 13:18 PTFRA–ENGOver 3.5WingsNO0.5661$34.161$-35.21+0.5cv1.6+M5
164Jul 18 13:18 PTFRA–ENGOver 4.5WingsNO0.7521$15.751$-16.03-0.5cv1.6+M5
165Jul 18 13:18 PTFRA–ENGFrance -1.5WingsNO0.6833$22.440$+10.06-2.5cv1.6+M5
166Jul 18 13:18 PTFRA–ENGFrance winFull distributionNO0.4536$16.200$+19.18-2.5cv1.6+M5
167Jul 18 13:18 PTFRA–ENGDrawFull distributionYES0.2418$4.320$-4.55-1.5cv1.6+M5
168Jul 18 13:18 PTFRA–ENGEngland winFull distributionYES0.2317$3.911$+12.88-1.5cv1.6+M5
169Jul 18 13:18 PTFRA–ENGOver 0.5Full distributionNO0.0562$3.101$-3.31-0.5cv1.6+M5
170Jul 18 13:18 PTFRA–ENGOver 1.5Full distributionNO0.1487$12.181$-12.91+0.5cv1.6+M5
171Jul 18 13:18 PTFRA–ENGOver 2.5Full distributionNO0.3276$24.321$-25.48+1.5cv1.6+M5
172Jul 18 13:18 PTFRA–ENGOver 3.5Full distributionNO0.5610$5.601$-5.77+0.5cv1.6+M5
173Jul 18 13:18 PTFRA–ENGBoth teams to scoreFull distributionNO0.311$0.311$-0.33+1.5cv1.6+M5
174Jul 18 13:18 PTFRA–ENGFrance -1.5Full distributionNO0.6833$22.440$+10.06-2.5cv1.6+M5
175Jul 18 14:27 PTFRA–ENGFrance winLive xGNO0.8458$48.7227'0$+8.73v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
176Jul 18 14:27 PTFRA–ENGDrawLive xGNO0.8336$29.8827'0$+5.76v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
177Jul 18 14:27 PTFRA–ENGEngland winLive xGYES0.6755$36.8527'1$+17.30v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
178Jul 18 14:27 PTFRA–ENGFrance -1.5Live xGNO0.9532$30.4027'0$+1.49v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
179Jul 18 14:27 PTFRA–ENGEngland -1.5Live xGYES0.4257$23.9427'1$+32.09v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
180Jul 18 14:51 PTFRA–ENGEngland -1.5HT xGYES0.9251$46.9245'1$+3.82v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
181Jul 18 15:10 PTFRA–ENGFrance winHT xGNO0.9730$29.1047'0$+0.84v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
182Jul 18 15:10 PTFRA–ENGDrawHT xGNO0.961$0.9647'0$+0.04v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
183Jul 18 15:10 PTFRA–ENGEngland winHT xGYES0.9342$39.0647'1$+2.75v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
184Jul 18 15:28 PTFRA–ENGFrance -1.5HT xGNO0.9721$20.3764'0$+0.59v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
185Jul 19 11:39 PTESP–ARGOver 3.5WingsNO0.7737$28.490$+8.05-1.5cv1.6+M5
186Jul 19 11:39 PTESP–ARGOver 4.5WingsNO0.8924$21.360$+2.48-0.5cv1.6+M5
187Jul 19 11:39 PTESP–ARGSpain -1.5WingsNO0.8123$18.630$+4.12-0.5cv1.6+M5
188Jul 19 11:39 PTESP–ARGArgentina -1.5WingsYES0.0914$1.260$-1.34-0.5cv1.6+M5
189Jul 19 11:39 PTESP–ARGSpain winFull distributionNO0.5826$15.080$+10.48-0.5cv1.6+M5
190Jul 19 11:39 PTESP–ARGArgentina winFull distributionYES0.2717$4.590$-4.82-0.5cv1.6+M5
191Jul 19 11:39 PTESP–ARGOver 0.5Full distributionNO0.1133$3.630$+29.14+0.5cv1.6+M5
192Jul 19 11:39 PTESP–ARGOver 1.5Full distributionNO0.3041$12.300$+28.10-0.5cv1.6+M5
193Jul 19 11:39 PTESP–ARGOver 2.5Full distributionNO0.5932$18.880$+12.58-1.5cv1.6+M5
194Jul 19 11:39 PTESP–ARGOver 3.5Full distributionNO0.7719$14.630$+4.13-1.5cv1.6+M5
195Jul 19 11:39 PTESP–ARGBoth teams to scoreFull distributionNO0.451$0.450$+0.53-0.5cv1.6+M5
196Jul 19 11:39 PTESP–ARGSpain -1.5Full distributionNO0.8124$19.440$+4.30-0.5cv1.6+M5
197Jul 19 11:39 PTESP–ARGArgentina -1.5Full distributionYES0.0915$1.350$-1.44-0.5cv1.6+M5
198Jul 19 12:34 PTESP–ARGDrawLive xGYES0.3445$15.3028'1$+28.99v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
199Jul 19 12:34 PTESP–ARGOver 0.5Live xGNO0.15127$19.0528'0$+106.82v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
200Jul 19 12:34 PTESP–ARGOver 1.5Live xGNO0.4237$15.5428'0$+20.83v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
201Jul 19 12:39 PTESP–ARGArgentina winLive xGNO0.767$5.3233'0$+1.59v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
202Jul 19 12:39 PTESP–ARGArgentina -1.5Live xGNO0.9312$11.1633'0$+0.79v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
203Jul 19 12:41 PTESP–ARGSpain -1.5Live xGNO0.8639$33.5435'0$+5.13v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
204Jul 19 12:56 PTESP–ARGDrawHT xGYES0.3959$23.0145'1$+35.01v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
205Jul 19 12:56 PTESP–ARGArgentina winHT xGNO0.7918$14.2245'0$+3.57v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
206Jul 19 12:56 PTESP–ARGOver 0.5HT xGNO0.24107$25.6845'0$+79.95v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
207Jul 19 12:56 PTESP–ARGOver 1.5HT xGNO0.582$1.1645'0$+0.81v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
208Jul 19 12:56 PTESP–ARGSpain -1.5HT xGNO0.8837$32.5645'0$+4.17v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
209Jul 19 13:01 PTESP–ARGArgentina -1.5HT xGNO0.9521$19.9545'0$+0.98v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
210Jul 19 13:45 PTESP–ARGSpain winLive xGNO0.6721$14.0767'0$+6.60v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@25+
211Jul 19 13:45 PTESP–ARGSpain winHT xGNO0.6720$13.4067'0$+6.29v1.6+M5+B2P-k30@HT
Paper account — no real orders. Fills simulated as taker at the displayed Kalshi touch, 7% taker fee netted. Four independent $500 books: Wings (deep overs / ±1.5 spreads), Full distribution (any prop with model edge), Live xG (active from minute 25 of the first half onward, priced with live expected goals), and HT xG (the same live-xG pricing but entering only from the half-time break and the second half — the two entry windows run as separate ledgers). Entry requires the model to beat the execution price by 2c net of fees. Stakes are half-Kelly on a market-blended probability (the model gets a 25% vote — its measured trust weight), and matches where model and market disagree on the 1x2 favorite by more than 20 points trade 1-lot tracking stakes only (rows tagged "tracked"). P&L is NET of taker fees (fee = 7% × price × (1−price) per contract; per-bet fees live in bets.csv). Settlement: regulation time. CLV = entry vs pre-kickoff closing mid, in cents.