Argentina vs Egypt · Regulation Time

Score probability matrix for Argentina vs Egypt
ARG↓ EGY→	0	1	2	3
0	17.1	5.2	1.1	0.1
1	23.1	9.3	1.5	0.2
2	17.2	6.2	1.1	0.1
3	8.3	3.0	0.5	0.1
4	3.0	1.1	0.2	0.0
5	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
5+	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%)

frozen (T-60) — drag to replay the match

Market	Model	Kalshi at freeze
Argentina win (reg)	64%	72%
Draw (reg)	28%	20%
Egypt win (reg)	8%	8%
Over 1.5 goals	55%	74%
Over 2.5 goals	27%	48%
Over 3.5 goals	11%	26%
Both teams to score	24%	42%
Argentina wins by 2+	34%	46%
Egypt wins by 2+	1%	2%

Model prices frozen at Jul 7, 8:10 AM PDT (see frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof).

All probabilities are for regulation time only (90' + stoppage; extra time and penalties excluded — Kalshi settles these markets the same way) · model v1.6+M5: Dixon-Coles fit on 2026-cycle qualifiers + WC2022 + tournament with precision-weighted rating deshrinkage (M5, 2026-07-11) + open international results (friendlies, Nations League, continental cups; neutral-venue aware); hosts (USA/MEX/CAN) auto-qualified — no qualifier matches · market = Kalshi orderbook mid · not betting advice