Regulation·Time

Track record

The model's job is to approximate fair value — transparency is the product. On main markets, expect the market to be slightly better than the model; that is the honest baseline for any public model.
0.256
Brier · over2.5 · n=103 (retro)
0.265
Brier · btts · n=103 (retro)
0.162
Brier · home_-1.5 · n=103 (retro)
0.231
Brier · over3.5 · n=103 (retro)
0.159
Brier · over4.5 · n=103 (retro)
0.090
Brier · home_-2.5 · n=103 (retro)
0.067
Brier · away_-2.5 · n=103 (retro)
DateMatch (reg score)Over 2.5BTTSHome −1.5Type
2026-07-18France 4-6 England41%✓48%✓19%✗retro
2026-07-15England 1-2 Argentina27%✓35%✓6%✗retro
2026-07-14France 0-2 Spain44%✗50%✗12%✗retro
2026-07-12Argentina 1-1 Switzerland36%✗38%✓29%✗retro
2026-07-11Norway 1-1 England49%✗54%✓11%✗retro
2026-07-10Spain 2-1 Belgium50%✓52%✓30%✗retro
2026-07-09France 2-0 Morocco25%✗34%✗12%✓retro
2026-07-07Switzerland 0-0 Colombia47%✗52%✗11%✗retro
2026-07-07Argentina 3-2 Egypt29%✓24%✓36%✗retro
2026-07-07United States 1-4 Belgium63%✓63%✓10%✗retro
2026-07-06Portugal 0-1 Spain49%✗53%✗11%✗retro
2026-07-06Mexico 2-3 England34%✓42%✓9%✗retro
2026-07-05Brazil 1-2 Norway61%✓61%✓31%✗retro
2026-07-04Colombia 1-0 Ghana48%✗38%✗47%✗retro
2026-07-04Paraguay 0-1 France41%✗40%✗4%✗retro
2026-07-04Canada 0-3 Morocco22%✓31%✗6%✗retro
2026-07-03Australia 1-1 Egypt24%✗34%✓13%✗retro
2026-07-03Argentina 1-1 Cape Verde Islands47%✗21%✓60%✗retro
2026-07-03Switzerland 2-0 Algeria48%✗54%✗18%✓retro
2026-07-02Spain 3-0 Austria50%✓48%✗37%✓retro
2026-07-02Portugal 2-1 Croatia49%✓51%✓30%✗retro
2026-07-02United States 2-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina59%✗56%✗39%✓retro
2026-07-01England 2-1 Congo DR21%✓26%✓23%✗retro
2026-07-01Belgium 2-2 Senegal46%✓51%✓22%✗retro
2026-07-01Mexico 2-0 Ecuador24%✗34%✗12%✓retro
2026-06-30Côte d'Ivoire 1-2 Norway38%✓45%✓9%✗retro
2026-06-30France 3-0 Sweden66%✓59%✗46%✓retro
2026-06-30Netherlands 1-1 Morocco29%✗38%✓10%✗retro
2026-06-29Germany 1-1 Paraguay48%✗49%✓31%✗retro
2026-06-29Brazil 2-1 Japan40%✓47%✓17%✗retro
2026-06-28South Africa 0-1 Canada30%✗35%✗5%✗retro
2026-06-28Algeria 3-3 Austria40%✓47%✓17%✗retro
2026-06-28Jordan 1-3 Argentina61%✓28%✓0%✗retro
2026-06-27Uruguay 0-1 Spain37%✗40%✗5%✗retro
2026-06-27Colombia 0-0 Portugal48%✗54%✗14%✗retro
2026-06-27Croatia 2-1 Ghana43%✓42%✓34%✗retro
2026-06-27New Zealand 1-5 Belgium52%✓36%✓1%✗retro
2026-06-27Egypt 1-1 Iran31%✗40%✓11%✗retro
2026-06-27Cape Verde Islands 0-0 Saudi Arabia29%✗38%✗11%✗retro
2026-06-27Congo DR 3-1 Uzbekistan16%✓25%✓12%✓retro
2026-06-27Panama 0-2 England56%✗37%✗1%✗retro
2026-06-26Norway 1-4 France54%✓57%✓11%✗retro
2026-06-26Paraguay 0-0 Australia26%✗36%✗11%✗retro
2026-06-26Türkiye 3-2 United States55%✓58%✓24%✗retro
2026-06-26Senegal 5-0 Iraq37%✓36%✗34%✓retro
2026-06-25Ecuador 2-1 Germany36%✓43%✓10%✗retro
2026-06-25Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands49%✓42%✓3%✗retro
2026-06-25South Africa 1-0 Korea Republic36%✗42%✗7%✗retro
2026-06-25Czech Republic 0-3 Mexico40%✓46%✗8%✗retro
2026-06-25Japan 1-1 Sweden53%✗51%✓38%✗retro
2026-06-25Curacao 0-2 Côte d'Ivoire54%✗31%✗1%✗retro
2026-06-24Switzerland 2-1 Canada38%✓46%✓19%✗retro
2026-06-24Scotland 0-3 Brazil56%✓52%✗5%✗retro
2026-06-24Colombia 1-0 Congo DR27%✗31%✗26%✗retro
2026-06-24Bosnia and Herzegovina 3-1 Qatar50%✓51%✓31%✓retro
2026-06-24Morocco 4-2 Haiti43%✓26%✓52%✓retro
2026-06-23Portugal 5-0 Uzbekistan43%✓38%✗40%✓retro
2026-06-23Panama 0-1 Croatia59%✗50%✗4%✗retro
2026-06-23Norway 3-2 Senegal45%✓51%✓20%✗retro
2026-06-23Jordan 1-2 Algeria60%✓52%✓4%✗retro
2026-06-23England 0-0 Ghana47%✗33%✗50%✗retro
2026-06-22Argentina 2-0 Austria28%✗28%✗30%✓retro
2026-06-22New Zealand 1-3 Egypt25%✓31%✓4%✗retro
2026-06-22France 3-0 Iraq51%✓34%✗54%✓retro
2026-06-21Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia59%✓35%✗62%✓retro
2026-06-21Belgium 0-0 Iran48%✗50%✗29%✗retro
2026-06-21Ecuador 0-0 Curacao56%✗26%✗65%✗retro
2026-06-21Tunisia 0-4 Japan34%✓32%✗2%✗retro
2026-06-21Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde Islands31%✓30%✓32%✗retro
2026-06-20Germany 2-1 Côte d'Ivoire42%✓46%✓26%✗retro
2026-06-20Brazil 3-0 Haiti80%✓42%✗79%✓retro
2026-06-20Türkiye 0-1 Paraguay40%✗47%✗17%✗retro
2026-06-20Netherlands 5-1 Sweden65%✓62%✓37%✓retro
2026-06-19Mexico 1-0 Korea Republic43%✗47%✗27%✗retro
2026-06-19United States 2-0 Australia47%✗53%✗15%✓retro
2026-06-19Scotland 0-1 Morocco28%✗32%✗4%✗retro
2026-06-18Uzbekistan 1-3 Colombia40%✓37%✓3%✗retro
2026-06-18Czech Republic 1-1 South Africa42%✗47%✓25%✗retro
2026-06-18Switzerland 4-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina54%✓47%✓44%✓retro
2026-06-18Canada 6-0 Qatar59%✓41%✗56%✓retro
2026-06-17Argentina 3-0 Algeria29%✓30%✗29%✓retro
2026-06-17England 4-2 Croatia35%✓41%✓22%✓retro
2026-06-17Austria 3-1 Jordan57%✓51%✓43%✓retro
2026-06-17Portugal 1-1 Congo DR30%✗31%✓30%✗retro
2026-06-17Ghana 1-0 Panama43%✗50%✗17%✗retro
2026-06-16France 3-1 Senegal44%✓48%✓27%✓retro
2026-06-16Iran 2-2 New Zealand36%✓35%✓34%✗retro
2026-06-16Iraq 1-4 Norway42%✓35%✓2%✗retro
2026-06-15Belgium 1-1 Egypt36%✗39%✓28%✗retro
2026-06-15Sweden 5-1 Tunisia46%✓51%✓23%✓retro
2026-06-15Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay26%✗28%✓3%✗retro
2026-06-15Spain 0-0 Cape Verde Islands69%✗36%✗71%✗retro
2026-06-14Netherlands 2-2 Japan38%✓45%✓12%✗retro
2026-06-14Haiti 0-1 Scotland61%✗50%✗3%✗retro
2026-06-14Australia 2-0 Türkiye40%✗48%✗14%✓retro
2026-06-14Côte d'Ivoire 1-0 Ecuador17%✗25%✗5%✗retro
2026-06-14Germany 7-1 Curacao88%✓36%✓89%✓retro
2026-06-13Qatar 1-1 Switzerland72%✗45%✓1%✗retro
2026-06-13Brazil 1-1 Morocco29%✗39%✓13%✗retro
2026-06-13United States 4-1 Paraguay45%✓51%✓14%✓retro
2026-06-12Korea Republic 2-1 Czech Republic47%✓53%✓16%✗retro
2026-06-12Canada 1-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina44%✗41%✓38%✗retro
2026-06-11Mexico 2-0 South Africa43%✗39%✗39%✓retro

Rows marked retro are walk-forward reconstructions (no lookahead: each prediction uses only matches played before it) computed after the fact — the model did not exist earlier in the tournament. Matches from 2026-07-04 onward are genuine pre-match predictions, frozen in this repo's git history ~1h before kickoff. ✓/✗ = whether the outcome happened.

All probabilities are for regulation time only (90' + stoppage; extra time and penalties excluded — Kalshi settles these markets the same way) · model v1.6+M5: Dixon-Coles fit on 2026-cycle qualifiers + WC2022 + tournament with precision-weighted rating deshrinkage (M5, 2026-07-11) + open international results (friendlies, Nations League, continental cups; neutral-venue aware); hosts (USA/MEX/CAN) auto-qualified — no qualifier matches · market = Kalshi orderbook mid · not betting advice