Argentina vs Switzerland
World Cup 2026 · kickoff Jul 11, 6:00 PM PDT · HALF-TIME xG conditional (B2, k=30) · Argentina 1-0 Switzerland at the break · remaining-goals rates re-estimated from first-half xG · one-shot snapshot, does not updatematch live — predictions frozen Jul 11, 6:52 PM PDT
model xG, rest of match 0.54 : 0.21first-half xG 0.27 : 0.09 — IS this model's primary input (60% weight at the break)
Score probability matrix for Argentina vs Switzerland| ARG↓ SUI→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5+ |
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| 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 1 | 47.7 | 9.5 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 2 | 25.0 | 5.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 3 | 6.9 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%). Most likely: 1–0 (47.7%)
| Market | Model | Kalshi 6:52 PM PDT |
| Argentina win (reg) | 89% | 78% |
| Draw (reg) | 10% | 16% |
| Switzerland win (reg) | 1% | 4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 52% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 18% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4% | 16% |
| Both teams to score | 19% | 44% |
| Argentina wins by 2+ | 35% | 40% |
| Switzerland wins by 2+ | 0% | — |
Model prices frozen at Jul 11, 6:52 PM PDT (see
frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof).