Regulation·Time

Brazil vs Norway

World Cup 2026 · kickoff Jul 5, 1:00 PM PDT · regulation-time probabilitiesfinal — prediction frozen Jul 5, 12:46 PM PDT
model xG 1.93 : 1.23
Score probability matrix for Brazil vs Norway
BRA↓ NOR→0123455+
05.14.43.21.30.40.10.0
17.311.06.22.50.80.20.0
27.99.76.02.40.80.20.0
35.16.23.81.60.50.10.0
42.53.01.90.80.20.10.0
50.91.20.70.30.10.00.0
5+0.40.50.30.10.00.00.0
Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%)
MarketModelKalshi at freeze
Brazil win (reg)53%55%
Draw (reg)24%26%
Norway win (reg)23%20%
Over 1.5 goals83%80%
Over 2.5 goals61%57%
Over 3.5 goals39%34%
Both teams to score61%62%
Brazil wins by 2+31%30%
Norway wins by 2+10%6%
Model prices frozen at Jul 5, 12:46 PM PDT (see frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof).
All probabilities are for regulation time only (90' + stoppage; extra time and penalties excluded — Kalshi settles these markets the same way) · model v1.6+M5: Dixon-Coles fit on 2026-cycle qualifiers + WC2022 + tournament with precision-weighted rating deshrinkage (M5, 2026-07-11) + open international results (friendlies, Nations League, continental cups; neutral-venue aware); hosts (USA/MEX/CAN) auto-qualified — no qualifier matches · market = Kalshi orderbook mid · not betting advice