Regulation·Time

Canada vs Morocco

World Cup 2026 · kickoff Jul 4, 10:00 AM PDT · regulation-time probabilitiesfinal — prediction frozen Jul 4, 8:47 AM PDT
model xG 0.90 : 0.71host (auto-qualified): Canada
Score probability matrix for Canada vs Morocco
CAN↓ MAR→0123455+
022.212.15.11.20.20.00.0
115.715.04.61.10.20.00.0
28.05.72.00.50.10.00.0
32.41.70.60.10.00.00.0
40.50.40.10.00.00.00.0
50.10.10.00.00.00.00.0
5+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%)
MarketModelKalshi at freeze
Canada win (reg)36%16%
Draw (reg)39%28%
Morocco win (reg)25%55%
Over 1.5 goals50%72%
Over 2.5 goals22%42%
Over 3.5 goals8%22%
Both teams to score32%50%
Canada wins by 2+13%4%
Morocco wins by 2+8%30%
Model prices frozen at Jul 4, 8:47 AM PDT (see frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof).
All probabilities are for regulation time only (90' + stoppage; extra time and penalties excluded — Kalshi settles these markets the same way) · model v1.6+M5: Dixon-Coles fit on 2026-cycle qualifiers + WC2022 + tournament with precision-weighted rating deshrinkage (M5, 2026-07-11) + open international results (friendlies, Nations League, continental cups; neutral-venue aware); hosts (USA/MEX/CAN) auto-qualified — no qualifier matches · market = Kalshi orderbook mid · not betting advice