xAnte·Soccer

England vs Argentina

World Cup 2026 · kickoff Jul 15, 12:00 PM PDT · HALF-TIME xG conditional (B2P, k=30) · England 0-0 Argentina at the break · remaining-goals rates re-estimated from first-half xG · one-shot snapshot, does not updatematch live — predictions frozen Jul 15, 12:51 PM PDT
model xG 0.22 : 0.31
Score probability matrix for England vs Argentina
ENG↓ ARG→0123455+
059.018.02.90.30.00.00.0
112.64.40.60.10.00.00.0
21.40.40.10.00.00.00.0
30.10.00.00.00.00.00.0
40.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
50.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
5+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%)
MarketModelKalshi 12:51 PM PDT
England win (reg)15%34%
Draw (reg)63%42%
Argentina win (reg)22%26%
Over 1.5 goals10%38%
Over 2.5 goals2%15%
Over 3.5 goals0%4%
Both teams to score6%28%
England wins by 2+2%8%
Argentina wins by 2+3%6%
Model prices frozen at Jul 15, 12:51 PM PDT (see frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof).
All probabilities are for regulation time only (90' + stoppage; extra time and penalties excluded — Kalshi settles these markets the same way) · model v1.6+M5: Dixon-Coles fit on 2026-cycle qualifiers + WC2022 + tournament with precision-weighted rating deshrinkage (M5, 2026-07-11) + open international results (friendlies, Nations League, continental cups; neutral-venue aware); hosts (USA/MEX/CAN) auto-qualified — no qualifier matches · market = Kalshi orderbook mid · not betting advice