Spain vs Argentina · xAnte Soccer

World Cup 2026 · kickoff Jul 19, 12:00 PM PDT · HALF-TIME xG conditional (B2P, k=30) · Spain 0-0 Argentina at the break · remaining-goals rates re-estimated from first-half xG · one-shot snapshot, does not updatematch live — predictions frozen Jul 19, 1:01 PM PDT

Score probability matrix for Spain vs Argentina
ESP↓ ARG→	0	1	2	3
0	54.4	12.7	1.6	0.1
1	19.7	5.3	0.6	0.0
2	3.8	0.9	0.1	0.0
3	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0
4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
5+	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%)

Market	Model	Kalshi 1:01 PM PDT
Spain win (reg)	25%	38%
Draw (reg)	60%	40%
Argentina win (reg)	15%	22%
Over 1.5 goals	13%	42%
Over 2.5 goals	2%	18%
Over 3.5 goals	0%	6%
Both teams to score	7%	30%
Spain wins by 2+	4%	12%
Argentina wins by 2+	2%	6%

Model prices frozen at Jul 19, 1:01 PM PDT (see frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof).

All probabilities are for regulation time only (90' + stoppage; extra time and penalties excluded — Kalshi settles these markets the same way) · model v1.6+M5: Dixon-Coles fit on 2026-cycle qualifiers + WC2022 + tournament with precision-weighted rating deshrinkage (M5, 2026-07-11) + open international results (friendlies, Nations League, continental cups; neutral-venue aware); hosts (USA/MEX/CAN) auto-qualified — no qualifier matches · market = Kalshi orderbook mid · not betting advice