Spain vs Belgium
World Cup 2026 · kickoff Jul 10, 12:00 PM PDT · HALF-TIME xG conditional (B2, k=30) · Spain 1-1 Belgium at the break · remaining-goals rates re-estimated from first-half xG · one-shot snapshot, does not updatematch live — predictions frozen Jul 10, 1:07 PM PDT
model xG, rest of match 1.19 : 0.42first-half xG 1.13 : 0.27 — IS this model's primary input (60% weight at the break)
Score probability matrix for Spain vs Belgium| ESP↓ BEL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5+ |
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| 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 1 | 0.0 | 20.9 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 2 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 10.8 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 3 | 0.0 | 14.2 | 5.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 4 | 0.0 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 5 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|---|
Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%). Most likely: 2–1 (23.0%)
| Market | Model | Kalshi 1:07 PM PDT |
| Spain win (reg) | 55% | 55% |
| Draw (reg) | 33% | 30% |
| Belgium win (reg) | 12% | 15% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100% | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79% | 82% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | 100% | — |
| Spain wins by 2+ | 25% | 24% |
| Belgium wins by 2+ | 2% | 4% |
Model prices frozen at Jul 10, 1:07 PM PDT (see
frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof).