xAnte·Soccer

France vs England

World Cup 2026 · kickoff Jul 18, 2:00 PM PDT · HALF-TIME xG conditional (B2P, k=30) · France 0-4 England at the break · remaining-goals rates re-estimated from first-half xG · one-shot snapshot, does not updatematch live — predictions frozen Jul 18, 2:51 PM PDT
model xG 0.63 : 0.91
Score probability matrix for France vs England
FRA↓ ENG→0123455+
00.00.00.00.022.618.312.2
10.00.00.00.012.413.47.7
20.00.00.00.04.33.92.4
30.00.00.00.00.90.80.5
40.00.00.00.00.10.10.1
50.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
5+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%)
MarketModelKalshi 2:51 PM PDT
France win (reg)0%—
Draw (reg)0%2%
England win (reg)100%98%
Over 1.5 goals100%—
Over 2.5 goals100%—
Over 3.5 goals100%—
Both teams to score47%76%
France wins by 2+0%—
England wins by 2+99%92%
Model prices frozen at Jul 18, 2:51 PM PDT (see frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof).
All probabilities are for regulation time only (90' + stoppage; extra time and penalties excluded — Kalshi settles these markets the same way) · model v1.6+M5: Dixon-Coles fit on 2026-cycle qualifiers + WC2022 + tournament with precision-weighted rating deshrinkage (M5, 2026-07-11) + open international results (friendlies, Nations League, continental cups; neutral-venue aware); hosts (USA/MEX/CAN) auto-qualified — no qualifier matches · market = Kalshi orderbook mid · not betting advice