France vs Spain
World Cup 2026 · kickoff Jul 14, 12:00 PM PDT · HALF-TIME xG conditional (B2P, k=30) · France 0-1 Spain at the break · remaining-goals rates re-estimated from first-half xG · one-shot snapshot, does not updatematch live — predictions frozen Jul 14, 12:52 PM PDT
model xG, rest of match 0.33 : 1.25first-half xG 0.05 : 1.15 — IS this model's primary input (60% weight at the break)
Score probability matrix for France vs Spain| FRA↓ ESP→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5+ |
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| 0 | 0.0 | 21.4 | 25.1 | 16.2 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
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| 1 | 0.0 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
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| 2 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
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| 3 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%). Most likely: 0–2 (25.1%)
| Market | Model | Kalshi 12:52 PM PDT |
| France win (reg) | 1% | 18% |
| Draw (reg) | 7% | 29% |
| Spain win (reg) | 91% | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 26% |
| Both teams to score | 28% | 70% |
| France wins by 2+ | 0% | 4% |
| Spain wins by 2+ | 60% | 24% |
Model prices frozen at Jul 14, 12:52 PM PDT (see
frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof).