France vs Morocco
World Cup 2026 · kickoff Jul 9, 1:00 PM PDT · HALF-TIME xG conditional (B2, k=30) · France 0-0 Morocco at the break · remaining-goals rates re-estimated from first-half xG · one-shot snapshot, does not updatematch live — predictions frozen Jul 9, 2:06 PM PDT
model xG, rest of match 1.24 : 0.22first-half xG 1.46 : 0.04 — IS this model's primary input (60% weight at the break)
Score probability matrix for France vs Morocco| FRA↓ MAR→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5+ |
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| 0 | 23.8 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 1 | 28.2 | 6.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 2 | 17.8 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 3 | 7.4 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%). Most likely: 1–0 (28.2%)
| Market | Model | Kalshi 2:06 PM PDT |
| France win (reg) | 63% | 60% |
| Draw (reg) | 31% | 29% |
| Morocco win (reg) | 6% | 12% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 43% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 18% | 26% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 6% | 10% |
| Both teams to score | 15% | 29% |
| France wins by 2+ | 31% | 28% |
| Morocco wins by 2+ | 1% | 2% |
Model prices frozen at Jul 9, 2:06 PM PDT (see
frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof).