Mexico vs England · Regulation Time

Score probability matrix for Mexico vs England
MEX↓ ENG→	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	14.0	13.6	8.4	3.2	0.9	0.2
1	10.5	14.5	7.6	2.9	0.8	0.2
2	5.3	6.0	3.5	1.3	0.4	0.1
3	1.6	1.8	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
4	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
5	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
5+	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%)

Market	Model	Kalshi at freeze
Mexico win (reg)	28%	34%
Draw (reg)	32%	32%
England win (reg)	40%	36%
Over 1.5 goals	62%	66%
Over 2.5 goals	34%	38%
Over 3.5 goals	15%	18%
Both teams to score	42%	50%
Mexico wins by 2+	10%	13%
England wins by 2+	17%	16%

Model prices frozen at Jul 5, 4:04 PM PDT (see frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof).

All probabilities are for regulation time only (90' + stoppage; extra time and penalties excluded — Kalshi settles these markets the same way) · model v1.6+M5: Dixon-Coles fit on 2026-cycle qualifiers + WC2022 + tournament with precision-weighted rating deshrinkage (M5, 2026-07-11) + open international results (friendlies, Nations League, continental cups; neutral-venue aware); hosts (USA/MEX/CAN) auto-qualified — no qualifier matches · market = Kalshi orderbook mid · not betting advice