Norway vs England
World Cup 2026 · kickoff Jul 11, 2:00 PM PDT · HALF-TIME xG conditional (B2, k=30) · Norway 1-1 England at the break · remaining-goals rates re-estimated from first-half xG · one-shot snapshot, does not updatematch live — predictions frozen Jul 11, 2:51 PM PDT
model xG, rest of match 0.55 : 0.64first-half xG 0.41 : 0.39 — IS this model's primary input (60% weight at the break)
Score probability matrix for Norway vs England| NOR↓ ENG→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5+ |
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| 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 1 | 0.0 | 31.3 | 18.6 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
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| 2 | 0.0 | 15.8 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
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| 3 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 4 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
|---|
Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%). Most likely: 1–1 (31.3%)
| Market | Model | Kalshi 2:51 PM PDT |
| Norway win (reg) | 25% | 18% |
| Draw (reg) | 44% | 32% |
| England win (reg) | 31% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100% | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 82% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 48% |
| Both teams to score | 100% | — |
| Norway wins by 2+ | 6% | 4% |
| England wins by 2+ | 9% | 20% |
Model prices frozen at Jul 11, 2:51 PM PDT (see
frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof).