| PAR↓ FRA→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 15.5 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Market | Model | Kalshi at freeze |
| Paraguay win (reg) | 14% | 4% |
| Draw (reg) | 26% | 12% |
| France win (reg) | 60% | 84% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 36% |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 40% |
| Paraguay wins by 2+ | 4% | — |
| France wins by 2+ | 34% | 60% |