Portugal vs Spain · Regulation Time

Score probability matrix for Portugal vs Spain
POR↓ ESP→	0	1	2	3	4	5	5+
0	8.3	9.9	8.3	4.2	1.6	0.5	0.2
1	7.0	13.2	9.2	4.6	1.8	0.5	0.2
2	4.5	6.8	5.1	2.6	1.0	0.3	0.1
3	1.7	2.5	1.9	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
4	0.5	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
5	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
5+	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%)

frozen (T-60) — drag to replay the match

Market	Model	Kalshi at freeze
Portugal win (reg)	27%	22%
Draw (reg)	28%	26%
Spain win (reg)	45%	50%
Over 1.5 goals	75%	80%
Over 2.5 goals	49%	54%
Over 3.5 goals	27%	30%
Both teams to score	53%	60%
Portugal wins by 2+	11%	8%
Spain wins by 2+	23%	26%

Model prices frozen at Jul 6, 11:02 AM PDT (see frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof).

All probabilities are for regulation time only (90' + stoppage; extra time and penalties excluded — Kalshi settles these markets the same way) · model v1.6+M5: Dixon-Coles fit on 2026-cycle qualifiers + WC2022 + tournament with precision-weighted rating deshrinkage (M5, 2026-07-11) + open international results (friendlies, Nations League, continental cups; neutral-venue aware); hosts (USA/MEX/CAN) auto-qualified — no qualifier matches · market = Kalshi orderbook mid · not betting advice