Regulation·Time

Switzerland vs Colombia

World Cup 2026 · kickoff Jul 7, 1:00 PM PDT · regulation-time probabilitiesfinal — prediction frozen Jul 7, 12:03 PM PDT
model xG 1.10 : 1.47
Score probability matrix for Switzerland vs Colombia
SUI↓ COL→0123455+
08.610.28.24.01.50.40.1
17.313.49.14.51.60.50.1
24.66.85.02.50.90.30.1
31.72.51.80.90.30.10.0
40.50.70.50.30.10.00.0
50.10.20.10.10.00.00.0
5+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%)
frozen (T-60) — drag to replay the match
MarketModelKalshi at freeze
Switzerland win (reg)27%26%
Draw (reg)28%32%
Colombia win (reg)45%42%
Over 1.5 goals74%68%
Over 2.5 goals48%40%
Over 3.5 goals26%22%
Both teams to score53%52%
Switzerland wins by 2+11%10%
Colombia wins by 2+23%20%
Model prices frozen at Jul 7, 12:03 PM PDT (see frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof).
All probabilities are for regulation time only (90' + stoppage; extra time and penalties excluded — Kalshi settles these markets the same way) · model v1.6+M5: Dixon-Coles fit on 2026-cycle qualifiers + WC2022 + tournament with precision-weighted rating deshrinkage (M5, 2026-07-11) + open international results (friendlies, Nations League, continental cups; neutral-venue aware); hosts (USA/MEX/CAN) auto-qualified — no qualifier matches · market = Kalshi orderbook mid · not betting advice