Regulation·Time

United States vs Belgium

World Cup 2026 · kickoff Jul 6, 5:00 PM PDT · regulation-time probabilitiesfinal — prediction frozen Jul 6, 4:10 PM PDT
model xG 1.27 : 2.06host (auto-qualified): United States
Score probability matrix for United States vs Belgium
USA↓ BEL→0123455+
04.46.67.65.22.71.10.5
13.810.29.66.63.41.40.7
22.96.06.14.22.20.90.4
31.22.52.61.80.90.40.2
40.40.80.80.60.30.10.1
50.10.20.20.10.10.00.0
5+0.00.10.10.00.00.00.0
Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%)
frozen (T-60) — drag to replay the match
MarketModelKalshi at freeze
United States win (reg)22%36%
Draw (reg)23%28%
Belgium win (reg)55%34%
Over 1.5 goals85%80%
Over 2.5 goals65%55%
Over 3.5 goals43%34%
Both teams to score64%62%
United States wins by 2+10%20%
Belgium wins by 2+33%16%
Model prices frozen at Jul 6, 4:10 PM PDT (see frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof).
All probabilities are for regulation time only (90' + stoppage; extra time and penalties excluded — Kalshi settles these markets the same way) · model v1.6+M5: Dixon-Coles fit on 2026-cycle qualifiers + WC2022 + tournament with precision-weighted rating deshrinkage (M5, 2026-07-11) + open international results (friendlies, Nations League, continental cups; neutral-venue aware); hosts (USA/MEX/CAN) auto-qualified — no qualifier matches · market = Kalshi orderbook mid · not betting advice