Argentina vs Switzerland · Regulation Time

Score probability matrix for Argentina vs Switzerland
ARG↓ SUI→	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.8	6.6	2.4	0.5	0.1
1	16.7	12.3	3.6	0.8	0.1
2	13.2	8.5	2.7	0.6	0.1
3	6.6	4.2	1.4	0.3	0.0
4	2.5	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.0
5	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0
5+	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%)

frozen (T-60) — drag to replay the match

Market	Model	Kalshi at freeze
Argentina win (reg)	57%	56%
Draw (reg)	28%	28%
Switzerland win (reg)	15%	14%
Over 1.5 goals	64%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	36%	42%
Over 3.5 goals	17%	22%
Both teams to score	38%	46%
Argentina wins by 2+	30%	30%
Switzerland wins by 2+	4%	4%

Model prices frozen at Jul 11, 5:22 PM PDT (see frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof). · half-time xG snapshot

All probabilities are for regulation time only (90' + stoppage; extra time and penalties excluded — Kalshi settles these markets the same way) · model v1.6+M5: Dixon-Coles fit on 2026-cycle qualifiers + WC2022 + tournament with precision-weighted rating deshrinkage (M5, 2026-07-11) + open international results (friendlies, Nations League, continental cups; neutral-venue aware); hosts (USA/MEX/CAN) auto-qualified — no qualifier matches · market = Kalshi orderbook mid · not betting advice