England vs Argentina · Regulation Time

Score probability matrix for England vs Argentina
ENG↓ ARG→	0	1	2	3	4	5	5+
0	17.7	17.6	10.7	4.0	1.1	0.3	0.1
1	9.8	13.6	7.1	2.7	0.8	0.2	0.0
2	3.6	4.1	2.4	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
3	0.8	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
4	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
5+	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%)

frozen (T-60) — drag to replay the match

Market	Model	Kalshi at freeze
England win (reg)	20%	36%
Draw (reg)	34%	34%
Argentina win (reg)	46%	32%
Over 1.5 goals	55%	68%
Over 2.5 goals	27%	40%
Over 3.5 goals	11%	22%
Both teams to score	34%	54%
England wins by 2+	6%	16%
Argentina wins by 2+	20%	12%

Model prices frozen at Jul 15, 11:10 AM PDT (see frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof). · half-time xG snapshot

All probabilities are for regulation time only (90' + stoppage; extra time and penalties excluded — Kalshi settles these markets the same way) · model v1.6+M5: Dixon-Coles fit on 2026-cycle qualifiers + WC2022 + tournament with precision-weighted rating deshrinkage (M5, 2026-07-11) + open international results (friendlies, Nations League, continental cups; neutral-venue aware); hosts (USA/MEX/CAN) auto-qualified — no qualifier matches · market = Kalshi orderbook mid · not betting advice