Regulation·Time

Spain vs Argentina

World Cup 2026 · kickoff Jul 19, 12:00 PM PDT · regulation-time probabilitiesfinal — prediction frozen Jul 19, 11:33 AM PDT
model xG 0.89 : 0.93
Score probability matrix for Spain vs Argentina
ESP↓ ARG→0123455+
017.413.87.02.20.50.10.0
113.114.66.31.90.50.10.0
26.46.02.80.90.20.00.0
31.91.80.80.30.10.00.0
40.40.40.20.10.00.00.0
50.10.10.00.00.00.00.0
5+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%)
frozen (T-60) — drag to replay the match
MarketModelKalshi at freeze
Spain win (reg)31%42%
Draw (reg)35%32%
Argentina win (reg)34%26%
Over 1.5 goals56%70%
Over 2.5 goals28%42%
Over 3.5 goals11%24%
Both teams to score37%56%
Spain wins by 2+11%20%
Argentina wins by 2+13%8%
Model prices frozen at Jul 19, 11:33 AM PDT (see frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof). · half-time xG snapshot
All probabilities are for regulation time only (90' + stoppage; extra time and penalties excluded — Kalshi settles these markets the same way) · model v1.6+M5: Dixon-Coles fit on 2026-cycle qualifiers + WC2022 + tournament with precision-weighted rating deshrinkage (M5, 2026-07-11) + open international results (friendlies, Nations League, continental cups; neutral-venue aware); hosts (USA/MEX/CAN) auto-qualified — no qualifier matches · market = Kalshi orderbook mid · not betting advice