| ESP↓ BEL→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Market | Model | Kalshi at freeze |
| Spain win (reg) | 53% | 60% |
| Draw (reg) | 26% | 26% |
| Belgium win (reg) | 21% | 16% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 32% |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 55% |
| Spain wins by 2+ | 30% | 34% |
| Belgium wins by 2+ | 8% | 6% |