France vs England · Regulation Time

Score probability matrix for France vs England
FRA↓ ENG→	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10.8	8.9	5.3	1.8	0.5	0.1
1	11.2	14.2	6.8	2.4	0.6	0.1
2	8.0	8.4	4.4	1.5	0.4	0.1
3	3.5	3.6	1.9	0.7	0.2	0.0
4	1.1	1.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0
5	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
5+	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%)

frozen (T-60) — drag to replay the match

Market	Model	Kalshi at freeze
France win (reg)	41%	56%
Draw (reg)	30%	24%
England win (reg)	29%	22%
Over 1.5 goals	69%	86%
Over 2.5 goals	41%	68%
Over 3.5 goals	21%	44%
Both teams to score	48%	70%
France wins by 2+	19%	32%
England wins by 2+	11%	10%

Model prices frozen at Jul 18, 1:13 PM PDT (see frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof). · half-time xG snapshot

All probabilities are for regulation time only (90' + stoppage; extra time and penalties excluded — Kalshi settles these markets the same way) · model v1.6+M5: Dixon-Coles fit on 2026-cycle qualifiers + WC2022 + tournament with precision-weighted rating deshrinkage (M5, 2026-07-11) + open international results (friendlies, Nations League, continental cups; neutral-venue aware); hosts (USA/MEX/CAN) auto-qualified — no qualifier matches · market = Kalshi orderbook mid · not betting advice