| FRA↓ ESP→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 13.9 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Market | Model | Kalshi at freeze |
| France win (reg) | 29% | 36% |
| Draw (reg) | 29% | 32% |
| Spain win (reg) | 42% | 30% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 30% |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 62% |
| France wins by 2+ | 12% | 18% |
| Spain wins by 2+ | 20% | 12% |