France vs Morocco · Regulation Time

Score probability matrix for France vs Morocco
FRA↓ MAR→	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	18.7	13.4	6.0	1.7	0.3	0.1
1	14.9	14.4	5.5	1.5	0.3	0.1
2	7.3	6.0	2.5	0.7	0.1	0.0
3	2.2	1.8	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0
4	0.5	0.4	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
5+	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%)

frozen (T-60) — drag to replay the match

Market	Model	Kalshi at freeze
France win (reg)	34%	62%
Draw (reg)	36%	24%
Morocco win (reg)	30%	14%
Over 1.5 goals	53%	74%
Over 2.5 goals	25%	48%
Over 3.5 goals	10%	26%
Both teams to score	35%	50%
France wins by 2+	13%	34%
Morocco wins by 2+	10%	4%

Model prices frozen at Jul 9, 12:01 PM PDT (see frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof). · half-time xG snapshot

All probabilities are for regulation time only (90' + stoppage; extra time and penalties excluded — Kalshi settles these markets the same way) · model v1.6+M5: Dixon-Coles fit on 2026-cycle qualifiers + WC2022 + tournament with precision-weighted rating deshrinkage (M5, 2026-07-11) + open international results (friendlies, Nations League, continental cups; neutral-venue aware); hosts (USA/MEX/CAN) auto-qualified — no qualifier matches · market = Kalshi orderbook mid · not betting advice