Norway vs England · Regulation Time

Score probability matrix for Norway vs England
NOR↓ ENG→	0	1	2	3	4	5	5+
0	7.8	9.6	8.4	4.4	1.7	0.5	0.2
1	6.6	12.9	9.4	4.9	1.9	0.6	0.2
2	4.3	6.7	5.3	2.8	1.1	0.3	0.1
3	1.6	2.5	2.0	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0
4	0.4	0.7	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
5	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
5+	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Expected score matrix — cell = probability (%)

frozen (T-60) — drag to replay the match

Market	Model	Kalshi at freeze
Norway win (reg)	26%	22%
Draw (reg)	27%	24%
England win (reg)	47%	52%
Over 1.5 goals	76%	80%
Over 2.5 goals	51%	56%
Over 3.5 goals	28%	34%
Both teams to score	54%	64%
Norway wins by 2+	11%	8%
England wins by 2+	25%	28%

Model prices frozen at Jul 11, 1:16 PM PDT (see frozen JSON — the git history of this file is the freeze proof). · half-time xG snapshot

All probabilities are for regulation time only (90' + stoppage; extra time and penalties excluded — Kalshi settles these markets the same way) · model v1.6+M5: Dixon-Coles fit on 2026-cycle qualifiers + WC2022 + tournament with precision-weighted rating deshrinkage (M5, 2026-07-11) + open international results (friendlies, Nations League, continental cups; neutral-venue aware); hosts (USA/MEX/CAN) auto-qualified — no qualifier matches · market = Kalshi orderbook mid · not betting advice